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Longer-term predictions of prevalence of employer-sponsored coverage were fewer and more uncertain, and four microsimulation studies estimated that from about two million to six million fewer individuals would have employer-sponsored coverage in the absence of the individual mandate than with the mandate. Differences in key assumptions and consideration of PPACA provisions likely contributed to some variation among estimates from the five microsimulation studies and the 16 employer surveys, the GAO said. Variation among the microsimulation studies may have stemmed from differences in assumptions about employer and employee decisionmaking, the time frames of the estimates, and assessments of potential compliance with the individual mandate. Variation among the employer surveys may be related to differences in survey sampling techniques, the number and types of employer respondents, and the framing of survey questions. For example, some surveys used a random sampling methodology, allowing their results to be generalized across all employers, while others did not. Also, some referred to specific PPACA provisions or provided specific information about provisions to respondents, while others did not. Some of the 19 employer surveys indicated that PPACA may have a larger effect on small employers and certain populations, and may prompt some employers to change benefit designs. For example, four surveys found that smaller employers were more likely than others to stop offering health coverage in response to PPACA, and five found that employers in general were more likely to drop coverage for retirees than for all employees. Nine surveys also indicated that employers are considering key changes to benefit design, some of which may result in greater employee cost for health coverage. The GAO report can be downloaded from http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-12-768.
Longer-term predictions of prevalence of employer-sponsored coverage were fewer and more uncertain, and four microsimulation studies estimated that from about two million to six million fewer individuals would have employer-sponsored coverage in the absence of the individual mandate than with the mandate.
Differences in key assumptions and consideration of PPACA provisions likely contributed to some variation among estimates from the five microsimulation studies and the 16 employer surveys, the GAO said. Variation among the microsimulation studies may have stemmed from differences in assumptions about employer and employee decisionmaking, the time frames of the estimates, and assessments of potential compliance with the individual mandate. Variation among the employer surveys may be related to differences in survey sampling techniques, the number and types of employer respondents, and the framing of survey questions.
For example, some surveys used a random sampling methodology, allowing their results to be generalized across all employers, while others did not. Also, some referred to specific PPACA provisions or provided specific information about provisions to respondents, while others did not.
Some of the 19 employer surveys indicated that PPACA may have a larger effect on small employers and certain populations, and may prompt some employers to change benefit designs. For example, four surveys found that smaller employers were more likely than others to stop offering health coverage in response to PPACA, and five found that employers in general were more likely to drop coverage for retirees than for all employees.
Nine surveys also indicated that employers are considering key changes to benefit design, some of which may result in greater employee cost for health coverage.
Rebecca Mooreeditors@plansponsor.com