The Society of Actuaries (SOA) has released a new research paper focusing on economic-scenario generators. Authored by global investment managing firm Conning, the paper offers insight about understanding the future of economies and financial markets, while highlighting the risk elements driving financial variability.
The paper is designed for various audiences from business practitioners and senior financial leaders to students
“This practical guide provides important perspectives for actuaries and other business professionals in working with economic scenario testing,” says R. Dale Hall, SOA managing director of research. “With the evolving changes on a global scale and the need for realistic models for risk management, it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of economic scenarios and the opportunities in working with capital markets.”
The paper analyzes the use of economic-scenario generators in supporting rating agency and regulatory requirements, its business applications in the insurance and pension industries and more.
“Practitioners’ use of robust sets of economic scenarios can provide critical insight into all the integrated moving parts of both the macro-economy and the global capital markets in which companies operate,” says Hal Pedersen, ASA, Ph.D., a director of Risk Solutions for Conning and one of the paper’s lead authors. “This is particularly important when dealing with persistent low or negative interest rate environments and when managing asset and liability risks over long time horizons.”
The full paper can be accessed here.