Institutional Investors See Eight Quarters of Positive Returns

Wilshire’s data shows this was the best one-year return since the year ending June 30, 2014; that year ended with a 15.51% median return and a third consecutive quarter to post an annual return above 10%.

Institutional assets tracked by the Wilshire Trust Universe Comparison Service delivered a median return of 3.25% for all retirement plan types in the third quarter of 2017.

As Wilshire lays out, this implies a median one-year gain of 11.40%, markedly higher than the low- to mid-single digit returns that had been forecasted by many.

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“This quarter marked the eighth consecutive positive quarter, the longest string of positive quarterly returns for all plan types since June 1998, which marked a string of 14 positive quarters in a row,” explains Robert Waid, managing director, Wilshire Associates. “This quarter’s return boosted the one-year return to 11.40% for the year ending September 30, 2017, compared to 11.31% for the year ending June 30, 2017.”

Wilshire’s data shows this was the best one-year return since the year ending June 30, 2014. That year ended with a 15.51% median return and a third consecutive quarter to post an annual return above 10%.

For context, the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index returned 4.59% for the third quarter and 18.89% for the year ending September 30, 2017, while the MSCI AC World ex U.S. for international equities rose 6.16% in the third quarter and 19.61% for the year. At the same time, the Wilshire Bond Index also gained 0.63% in the third quarter and 0.96% for the year.

“This resulted in a positive range of median plan-type returns in the second quarter, as the low median return was 2.03% for Taft Hartley Health and Welfare Funds and the high median return was 3.63% for public funds with assets greater than $5 billion,” Waid reports. “For one-year returns, the low median return was 7.15% for Taft Hartley Health and Welfare Funds and the high median return was 12.81% for public funds with assets greater than $5 billion.”

Other data from Wilshire shows, for the third quarter in a row, large public funds outperformed small public funds. Large foundations and endowments continued to have significant exposure to alternatives, with the median exposure rising slightly to 37.94% in the third quarter. All plan types with assets greater than $1 billion experienced median returns of 3.28% for the third quarter and 11.83% for the year ending September 30, 2017, compared to plans with assets less than $1 billion, which experienced median returns of 3.23% for the third quarter and 11.19% for the year.

As Waid further observes, in the third quarter, only Taft Hartley Health and Welfare Funds experienced median returns worse than the 60/40 portfolio, which returned 3.01%. This pulled the median return for all plan types down slightly to 3.25%, but it remained above the 60/40 portfolio for the third consecutive quarter.

“The first quarter of 2017 was notably the first time this happened since the quarter ending June 2015,” Waid notes.

Wilshire TUCS is a cooperative effort between Wilshire Analytics, the investment technology unit of Wilshire Associates Incorporated, and custodial organizations. More research and information is available here

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