The survey of 160 actuaries, conducted June 13, found approximately two-thirds of respondents expect annual costs for currently insurable individuals to increase at least 10%, and costs for large group employers to increase at least 5%, even if the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) is upheld in its entirety. If the individual mandate is struck down, but all other provisions remain, 76% of actuaries surveyed expect annual health costs for currently insurable patients to increase more than 10%. Only three percent of respondents expect costs to go down if the individual mandate is thrown out and all other provisions remain.
In addition, 60% of survey respondents believe exchanges will not reduce individual and small group insurance costs compared to pre-exchange private-market options.
The survey found eight in 10 actuaries (83%) expect the ACA to reduce the number of uninsured by at least 10 million (from approximately 50 million currently uninsured). More than one-third (37%) of respondents believe the ACA will reduce the number of uninsured by up to 30 million, potentially leaving 20 million still uninsured.
Complete survey results are at http://www.soa.org/Files/Newsroom/newsroom-aca-poll-results-0612.pdf.
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