Uncertainty, Not Just Policy, Is Reshaping Retirement in America

For workers nearing retirement, it is not just policy changes that are altering their plans, but the growing uncertainty of what those policies might become, according to a new survey conducted by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

“How Policy Risks Affect Retirement Planning for Older Americans,” a brief based on the survey, found that anxiety over the future of Social Security, Medicare, taxes and inflation is prompting many older Americans to delay retirement and adopt more conservative financial strategies.

Alicia Munnell, the center’s current senior adviser who co-authored the study, says the distinction between policy changes and policy uncertainty is critical to understanding this shift.

“We’re not just talking about actual changes,” Munnell, who also founded the center, says. “We’re talking about people not knowing what’s going to happen—and that uncertainty itself is shaping behavior.”

Concern Creeps Up

The report draws on a 2025 survey of more than 1,400 Americans ages 45 through 79 with at least $100,000 in investable assets. It found that that group’s concerns about their financial future has risen sharply, with many respondents citing Social Security cuts and inflation as their greatest fears.

Even without concrete policy changes, the mere possibility of shifts—from benefit reductions to tax increases—is enough to alter decisions. Those fears seem to be growing as the Social Security trust funds deplete. Last year, the Social Security Administration estimated that the trust funds were expected to deplete by 2034. In February, the Congressional Budget Office predicted it to be insolvent by 2032, which would mean reduced benefits for retirees.

“There’s a whole literature on what uncertainty does to people and to the economy,” Munnell says. “When people react defensively, that’s not always good.”

Defensive reactions are already visible. About 20% of pre-retirees now expect to retire later than previously planned, while many others are shifting investments into safer assets or building larger cash reserves.

A Shift in Reality

The shift comes as the American workforce ages and traditional retirement patterns evolve. For decades, rising education levels, the decline of physically demanding jobs and changes to pensions have pushed retirement ages higher, according to Munnell.

For example, 27% of respondents said they shifted to more conservative portfolios beginning in 2025, and 6% said they bought a investment product to protect against losses. But Munnell says those forces may be reaching their limits.

“A lot of the incentives for working later have played themselves out,” she says. “I would not expect to see a big increase in the average retirement age in the next five to 10 years.”